My Christmas Present from Interplex

Hello,

Here's wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas!

Baring fund has announced their plans to buy Interplex at around S$450m with each share price at around $0.82.

This price is definitely a premium over its average share price over the year. The premium is about 62%!

I bought Interplex at $0.68 and that means I will be making some profits for this takeover. Yay! Good news! :D

The year ended with some profits and some losses for my overall portfolio. Although I picked some good buys, I also made some costly mistakes ;(

Ah well, think long term ;)

Good luck, everyone. Hoping all of you have a blessed year ahead. :)

Recent Actions- Sell/Buy

Hello,

Just thought that I should share some of my recent stock actions.

Summary:
1. Bought Ascendas reit @ $2.22
2. Bought Frasers Centrepoint Trust @ $1.81
3. Bought STI ETF @ $2.86.
4. Bought OCBC @ $8.72

The Fed has increased its interest rates by 0.25% , citing an improvement in the US economy and business confidence.
Stock prices are the NPV (net present value) of its future free cash flow, a higher interest rate will mean a higher discount rate and that translates to lower NPV (lower stock price). This is the reason why stock market in SG went a nosedive last week.

Although business borrowing costs would increase due to a higher interest rate and that translates to possibly lower returns for Reits, I still went ahead to purchase Ascendas Reit @$2.22 and Frasers Centrepoint Trust @ $1.81.

These 2 Reits have a strong rental occupancy portfolio.

A-Reit has a well diversified portfolio, with 5 main property segments and situated at well located areas. It has a stable portfolio with 89.8% of portfolio revenue committed for FY15/16 and a portfolio average lease to expiry of about 3.6 years. They have also acquired One@Changi business park recently.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust has very well located shopping malls in the heartlands such as Causeway point and it enjoys consistent high occupancy rate.

I also bought STI ETF at $2.86
What I observed was that before a major announcement is to occur, Singapore's stock would experience a major fall on the day before. I grabbed STI ETF at $2.86 on 15.12.2015, the day before FED announced its IR decision. (Considering US time zone)

Lastly, I bought OCBC at $8.72
Well, I am not some finance economy expert but my observation is that bank stocks do generally better in a higher ir environment, possibly due to a myriad of many many factors. (Business confidence, better IR spreads to profit from)

In 2007, when the US ir was a crazy 5%+, OCBC stocks were at its highest (then) of $8+. When the financial crisis came about and ir suddenly took a nose dive to 0.2%, OCBC stock went tumbling down to $4+. Of course, there are many other reasons accounting for this so my addition of OCBC is more of a hedge to my portfolio.

Although the US has cited sustainable business growth, better economic performance and more jobs in the US, Singapore's economy does not look promising at the moment.
Economists have trimmed Singapore's growth forecast to 1.9% with the manufacturing sector faring the worst.

With that, I say, hold up your war chest and acquire some good business or ETF along the way :)

What is one astonishing fact about Warren Buffet?

99% of Buffett’s wealth was earned after his 50th birthday

Warren buffet started investing at age 11.

From 11 to 50 years, he spent 39 years in his investing career but only made the bulk of his wealth after age 50!

No, his 39 years won't wasted. This is the Magic of Compounding.

His investment returns are a whooping 15% and he is able to beat the SNP500 index of approx. 8% returns.

Warren Buffet understood this concept which few were able to, and with his prowess in investing, he is able to earn much much more (Billions and Billions)!

I have written a post about the magic of compounding here previously- how an average person at age 25 can earn $1m by age 55 through  investing at 4.5% returns. I still think that it is achievable.

That said, investment requires hard work- prudent investment decisions, a tad of luck, discipline and perhaps many other factors. If you are not able to read financial statements consistently, my honest advice will be to put your savings into OCBC 360 account.... its interest is good given the risk involved.

Why is Noble a bad buy even at $0.47

I know there are many Noble fans in Singapore. Sorry, but I really cannot super cannot understand why are people still buying Noble in this market?

Before I study its financial statements released yesterday, let's look at how Iron ore prices importing from China have dropped since last year. I relate to Iron ore since Noble group has a major business unit in metals and mining.

From a high of US$160+ in 2013 to the current $40+ now, the Iron ore prices have dropped so much. When iron ore drops, metals/mining/scrap all others drop too.

In fact, the commodities market has sucked so badly this year and it is of no surprise that companies dealing in this sector will face a drop in profits. When your revenue drops but your fixed costs remain, it just means that the profit will drop a lot more.

But here's the thing:

Sorry to say, metal prices show NO signs of recovering as of now.

This is because I work in the frontline of metal commodity prices so I do have some knowledge on the prices.

So if it's still not recovering, can I safely say that next quarter's financial results will still be as disappointing? Which means stock price may drop even more?

Now, let's go on to Noble's financial results:

1. ROE (Return on Equity) Based on info provided by Noble: 5%+
A healthy, growing company should have an ROE of  >15%. 5% is not even 1/3 of that omg..

2. D/E ratio is 2.80+ approx.
This is like super high. A healthy company should be looking at <1

3.When ROE sucks and D/E also sucks, the company show signs that it is heading for Disaster.
If you have a high ROE and a good D/E, it is a very good growing company. If your ROE is low but D/E is also low , it implies that the company is surviving but nothing fantastic.
But if your ROE sucks and your D/E also sucks, then likely it is heading for a disaster.

4. Profits dropped 83%,
Not a surprise when commodity prices drop so much. However, cash flow is now positive and it seems that Noble has done a good job in cutting costs.

I can't determine what is a good price to buy given that the earnings are really volatile in this terrible market.

Conclusion:
Will only consider to buy when the commodity market in general show signs of picking up.

Can you resist the temptation to make money quickly? & Some quotes from Warren.Buffet

STI went up last week when US jobs data are good.
Then STI went down this week rapidly when China's economic data is bad.

These few months, the stock market has been very volatile and I spotted some speculative stocks like Noble and Ezra trading at highs and lows.

It seems that it is really quite tempting to make money quickly by buying such speculative stocks but I am strongly against such techniques as you can get your hands burnt badly.
 
Let's revisit some quotes from my super idol Warren Buffet:

1."Never attempt to make quick money on the stock market."
Sound investing can make you very wealthy if you are not in too big a hurry. Buy on the assumption that they close the market the next day and not re-open it for 5 years.

2."Buy Businesses, Not stocks"
All there is to investing is picking good companies at the right times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies. Businesses you are willing to own forever.

3."Invest in great companies"
It’s better to buy wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

My targeted actions during this volatile period:

1. Be Patient.
Mentality of an owner, not speculator. Long term investment horizon please.

2.Read and read financial reports.
Investigate and find out Why, Why , Why and read the competitors financial reports to see where is the industry heading.
I am telling myself to spend more time on reports than Facebook.

3. Before I buy and sell, think carefully of the risks and opportunity cost first.
I made some horrible careless investment mistakes in the past and I am learning from it. Hopefully, I am much wiser now.

Good luck to all other investors there!

Oxley retail bonds review (5%)

There has been much hype on this Oxley retail 5% bond, spanning over 4 years maturity. However, it is unrated and that means I can't rely on any Moody's analysis to discern whether it is a good deal a not.

I have to analyse on my own then. After studying its financial report and ripping it apart, below are my takeaways and humble thoughts.

Before I go to the financial jargon, I need to express that this is only my opinion and may not bear any truth at all. Analysis and thoughts are of personal opinions only. For every statement I make here, I will put 'I think'. (but it is up to you to discern what I say correct anot ;P)

1.Profit before tax dropped from FY14 to FY15 by a whopping approx. 62%

FY 2014: $377,367m
FY 2015: $142,705m
Oxley holdings has achieved very impressive profits in Year 2013 and 2012, when the property market in Singapore was booming.
However, after the cooling property measures were implemented, many developers are facing a lackluster response in its properties. It is no surprise that Oxley was badly affected by it too.
Oxley has plans to expand overseas aggressively instead but looking at its financials, I do not find them promising. (to explain later)

2. Marketing expense increased 99%

I think when you increase your marketing expenses by 99% but then your results decrease by 62%, it means:
A. Your marketing strategies CMI. (cannot make it)
B. You are not getting the response that you want, i.e, demand is not that good.
I think that it is option B because Oxley's marketing agents are mostly from Huttons and Huttons really produce impressive results in other properties previously. When you spend so much more on marketing yet get poor results, it just shows that your products are not as good.

3. Debt ratio and D/E ratio is high

I think it is high.
Debt ratio (Total liabilities/Total assets) = 0.85 approx
The industry encourages standard of about (0.3~0.6) only.

Debt/equity ratio (Debt/equity)= 5.807 approx.
Other companies are <1.......

I think Oxley has too much leverage and it is risky.This means that if their business fail, I think I will be in queue 1,000,000 to get back my money lor omg. (Just joking, queue no. is a fake anyhow say number)

Look at its fixed notes it previously issued:

I think those that were issued in Year 2013 were for its projects in Y2013/Y2014 which did receive resounding success. Oxley should be able to pay them.

But for notes issued now, the money I think will be used for its overseas projects venture moving on but this leads me to the next point.

4.No confidence in Oxley's overseas projects venture

Look at this:

Forget its FY2015 poor performance. I think future plans are very important and the strategies form the crux of whether the company is a good investment a not.

Looking at this table, I really do not think Oxley overseas projects are promising.

A. Projects in Cambodia
I go to Cambodia- Phnom Penh every single year (I'm not a Cambodian btw) and I have some close friends there. There is an association there which I am committed too and has a close relationship with. As such, I think I have some knowledge to really say how Phnom Penh is like. And this is what majority of Phnom Penh is:

1. Mud & uneven roads
2. Slums
3.Corruption
4. Poverty
5. Main language of the people is Khmer
6. More well off people work as factory garment workers
7. Less well off people open shops infront of their living area and sell the same stuffs that other shops sell too.
8. Children not wearing underwear and running around
9. many many other scenario depicting a 3rd world country

Phnom Penh has a very very long way to go for foreign investments. And to build high rise condominiums and to attract expats to stay there, well, I think, more likely they will become AirBnb.

I do not think that Oxely's property developments in Phnom Penh are promising although their first project there did receive a good response.

B. Projects in Malaysia
Exchange rate of those people who bought properties in Malaysia during year 2013 when the market is booming there: SGD 1: MYR 2.65

The exchange rate now: SGD 1: MYR 3.05

Exchange rate in future: ????

With a very questionable government, weak currency, poor security, I think the property market there is certainly not as attractive as in year 2013. As such, I do not think that projects there will receive good response.

Also, Setia Berhad, the leading property developer there, has much more competitive advantage in its home land as compared to Oxley.

Given that Singapore's developers are facing a weakening demand here, and Oxley's prime focus is shifting to overseas with such projects in such countries, I do not have the confidence in their ventures.

5. You can get 5% yield elsewhere too
5% yield capital guaranteed by AAA credit rating from Moody's is a must grab.

But when it is unrated and it has poor future strategies, then I think it will be better if you put your money into blue chip stocks or diversified reits- Probably 6% over 7 years horizon, your money is safer.

Conclusion

I will not buy Oxley's retail 5% bonds because the risk does not justify the returns.

Recent Action- Sold Capitamall Trust

I sold CapitaMall Trust today and as such, I will not be entitled to its dividends.(ex- dividend date 28.10.15) After factoring this opportunity cost, I still think that at $2.06, it has reached its potential. I shall reap my profits now and gain entry again perhaps next year.

Looking at its 3Qtr 2015 financial report, below are my takeaways:

1. Net property income dropped.
Net property Income has dropped again, consecutively since 2Qtr 2015. The drop is about 0.7%. I expect that it will continue to drop until the 3 malls which are not faring well now brushes up in its rentals.

2. 3 main properties facing a drop in rental income:
IMM
Rental was affected due to renovation works but a link bridge to Devan Nair Institute is completed. Only after all renovation works done and the mall is fully operating then the property income will increase.

JCube
This is a headache.. seriously.
With three shopping malls at Jurong East, west siders are spoilt for choice. Jcube is also very out of the way for shoppers and most of the time, I do not make any effort to go there at all as it is really inconvenient. Furthermore, the toilets stink. The most disgusting toilets are awarded to Jcube, like seriously. Lol.

Anyway, recently there is a revamp at Level 2- a mini Bugis street look alike. I find that appealing since there are many clothes to shop and it really belongs to a league of its own- teenagers. The ice skating rink is a good attraction too.

Clark Quay
After the liquor laws kick in, Clark Quay has become much quieter than before. Previous tenants like MOF are no longer operating. Some clubs are finding it tough to survive too.

Good news is that Zouk will be renting a place here but that will only start in June 2016.

I expect that the rental incomes of these 3 properties will only start to improve in 2016 onwards which translate to weaker income for 4th Qtr 2015 and 1st Qtr 2016. Before I see this stock price dropping, let me sell it first.

3. I expect Finance cost to increase.
Finance costs for YTD Sept 2015 was lower due to low interest rates in Aug 2014, Nov 2014 and Feb 2015. However, moving on to the next Qtr, I believe that the interest rates have risen quite a bit and that will translate to higher finance costs.

4. Good move to buy Bedok Mall
Bedok Mall's business is buoyant and there is high human traffic. However, I do not think that this mall alone will be able to salvage the other three dropping incomes.

5. Better opportunities for my $
Frasers Centre Point trust is certainly doing much better. Almost all of the surb-urban malls enjoy good human traffic. The recent financials are good too.

I will accumulate my war chest by cashing out CMT and divest to other better performing stocks now.

As for CMT, let it sort out the ailing 3 mallsand I will make an entry again probably next year.