Why is Noble a bad buy even at $0.47

I know there are many Noble fans in Singapore. Sorry, but I really cannot super cannot understand why are people still buying Noble in this market?

Before I study its financial statements released yesterday, let's look at how Iron ore prices importing from China have dropped since last year. I relate to Iron ore since Noble group has a major business unit in metals and mining.

From a high of US$160+ in 2013 to the current $40+ now, the Iron ore prices have dropped so much. When iron ore drops, metals/mining/scrap all others drop too.

In fact, the commodities market has sucked so badly this year and it is of no surprise that companies dealing in this sector will face a drop in profits. When your revenue drops but your fixed costs remain, it just means that the profit will drop a lot more.

But here's the thing:

Sorry to say, metal prices show NO signs of recovering as of now.

This is because I work in the frontline of metal commodity prices so I do have some knowledge on the prices.

So if it's still not recovering, can I safely say that next quarter's financial results will still be as disappointing? Which means stock price may drop even more?

Now, let's go on to Noble's financial results:

1. ROE (Return on Equity) Based on info provided by Noble: 5%+
A healthy, growing company should have an ROE of  >15%. 5% is not even 1/3 of that omg..

2. D/E ratio is 2.80+ approx.
This is like super high. A healthy company should be looking at <1

3.When ROE sucks and D/E also sucks, the company show signs that it is heading for Disaster.
If you have a high ROE and a good D/E, it is a very good growing company. If your ROE is low but D/E is also low , it implies that the company is surviving but nothing fantastic.
But if your ROE sucks and your D/E also sucks, then likely it is heading for a disaster.

4. Profits dropped 83%,
Not a surprise when commodity prices drop so much. However, cash flow is now positive and it seems that Noble has done a good job in cutting costs.

I can't determine what is a good price to buy given that the earnings are really volatile in this terrible market.

Conclusion:
Will only consider to buy when the commodity market in general show signs of picking up.